Spatial disease models: picking a “useful” model for pressing ecological questions

Since all models are wrong the scientist cannot obtain a “correct” one by excessive elaboration. On the contrary following William of Occam he should seek an economical description of natural phenomena. Just as the ability to devise simple but evocative models is the signature of the great scientist so overelaboration and overparameterization is often the mark of mediocrity.

– George Box

Ecology is fundamentally intertwined with our understanding of processes that regulate our environment. However, we find ourselves facing unprecedented human-driven changes in our environment in the forms of urbanization, fragmentation, and climate change. With such monumental changes, we have already observed and can expect to see further differences in how pathogens emerge and spread in human and animal populations. Mathematical models can be a particularly valuable tool that help us understand how epidemics come to be, not only in the context of populations, but across landscapes. You have probably…